Flight 370 - Where Is It?

Those of you who read my blog know I am involved as a volunteer in search and rescue (SAR) with a local county sheriff’s SAR team. 

 

 

As you might imagine, I have been following the search for Malaysia Airlines flight 370 fairly closely. I have been involved in some locally very large and emotional searches, and some of those were for missing aircraft.  Those were mostly small private or medical aircraft. In the missing aircraft searches I have been involved in, just like 370, a transponder was turned off.  And like 370 we had a fair amount of radar data, and even communications with the aircrafts before they disappeared .  And much like 370 we sometimes involved satellites and other sophisticated technology in the search efforts. One aircraft wasn’t found until three years later, another is still missing in the rugged terrain of Grand Canyon…or so we think.  But I have never participated in the search for a large commercial aircraft on land or in the ocean, and hopefully never will. 

I have been fortunate to be trained by some of the best SAR personnel in our country.  The National Park Service from Grand Canyon on SAR mission management and also from the Air Force’s National Inland Search School.  Much of the Air Force school was about searching for missing aircraft. These schools were intense and both were a week long.  In the Air Force school all week, along with training, we had to manage an evolving  mock search for a missing aircraft and survivors on the ground.

 

 I don’t know if you remember Steve Fossett.  He was world renowned aviator adventurer.  A number of years ago his plane went missing near California and Nevada.  It was all over the national media.  It so happens one of the Civil Air Patrol Commanders for that search was in my class.  That was very interesting to hear his experiences.  See the link below about Fossett.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/us/03fossett.html

So I find this  Flt. 370 SAR fascinating. I don’t have any more idea than anyone else as to what happened or where the aircraft is.

 

              Crashed aircraft on a mountain side near Flagstaff. 

                                           Not easy to find.

And let me make it clear up front in my comments here I am NOT critical of the 370 SAR efforts.  Believe me I know what a daunting if not impossible task they are faced with.  And my comments here  are my own and in no way represent any agency I belong to or work with or the policies they use.

Just recently, however, in the middle of all this  I was involved for 3 days of a 6 day search for a missing person.  The end to that search was tragic, and the outcome was determined well before SAR arrived on scene.  Hopefully we brought some closure to the family and friends. 

 

It was a difficult search.  Our trackers had the monumental task of trying to follow tracks after a day of 50 mph winds had badly eroded the tracks to almost useless…but to their great credit as highly trained volunteers they found the subject.  I am a trained man tracker as well so I know what this effort took.

Part of my roll in command was to take the trackers GPS and other info about what the tracks were telling them and plot it on mapping software on a computer, compare it to other clues on the map and then help them determine where to look next if the tracks were lost, and to direct other searchers and dogs, and a helicopter in the appropriate places based on the track info. 

But in light of the international flight 370 story I thought some of you might be interested to see some of the SAR process that is likely being employed and how. 

 
            Another crashed aircraft barely visible at 10,500 ft in the
             AZ mountains in winter.

This 370 search is unprecedented and all searches differ, but they also have many common threads.  For me the 370 SAR has many familiar aspects.

So if you would like to see what these searchers are up against and get beyond the media view, stick with me, and be a SAR planner or manager for a few minutes.  Maybe get a different perspective from the media.

 

 

Searching for a missing aircraft from

 a state police helicopter.

When I am not assigned to the field, frequently as a tracker, I often fill the role in the SAR command staff as the Operations Section Chief, or assist the Ops Chief in the Incident Command System.  The role of the Ops Chief is to take the area the SAR planners want searched based on all the info available and  figure out  the strategy and tactics to search it. The planners sort of say to the Ops Chief.  “ Here is what we think and where we want to search…now go figure out how to search it!”  

We have to look at the search area, the terrain, weather, and numerous other dynamic factors and then decide the strategy and tactics, the equipment, what resources, and how to search.  Do I use a helicopter, a ground sweep, trackers, a horse unit, dogs, or all the above and where do I put them to be most effective to accomplish the plan.  It is an awesome  responsibility and it can be very intense!

For example if you have several aircraft in the search area the risk goes up and you have to make sure those aircraft are safely separated and don’t conflict.  You can see this in the 370 SAR  for example with so many aircraft involved.

So like 370 where do you start on such a massive search, or even a small one to solve what looks almost impossible?  I will step you through some of it, even though what is happening with 370 may be a bit different, there will be very  common threads.

 

          A downed helicopter on a heli-ski trip in the Colorado.

       Fortunately I was not in this ship but in another.  As a result

       we were stranded in a survival situation in the winter in the

       Colorado mts.  And fortunately we were rescued by another

      helicopter.

Well first you have to establish a massive investigative effort and it will be ongoing.  Then you need to determine from the investigation the Last Know Point (LKP).    This would be that last verified place you are confident the person or aircraft was known to be.  Here you can anchor the Initial Planning Point or (IPP) to start your SAR plan from.  The  investigation should  bring in more data, to the search planners, since early on data is usually frustratingly limited…and often wrong or quickly changing.  It is a very dynamic environment and difficult to work with, but is all you have.

An expert SAR planner I know says about big searches … at the beginning there are three  things you can almost always depend on.  And all three seem to apply to the 370 search.  That is not a criticism…it is just a frequent SAR reality. 

1.       There will be chaos.

2.       Information is very limited.

3.       That information you have is usually wrong!

Imagine having to make decisions to save a life (lives) in that informational environment…but that is what we have to do.

Once we know the LKP and what we determine is the IPP we can start a SAR plan.

From here we take it through 4 steps according to nationally accepted standards. 

 

We try to establish a theoretical search area. 

And this is where to pay attention to see what an almost impossible task the 370 SAR actually is.  It is simple math to calculate the area of a circle.  Note the page below. 

 

So let’s say a family loses a strong healthy teenager in the national forest on a camping trip. They look for the teen for 3 hours unsuccessfully then report him missing to SAR.  In our huge county almost half the size of Ohio, it might take us an addition 2 or 3 hours to mobilize and reach the scene.  That means at least 5 hours have lapsed. 

If a person can travel 2 mph for 5 hours in a straight line they can theoretically go 10 miles.  But that is 10 miles in ANY direction if you don’t know where they went.  So apply the math to determine the area of a circle with a 10 mile radius. 

Now the search area is a huge 314 sq. miles just in this example which is extremely common for my SAR team 

But let’s change the scenario.  Suppose the family waits 24 hours to report the missing teen.  Now the theoretical search area is over 7000 sq. miles !!!! And what if the teen in our case had access to a vehicle! Of course our teen probably didn’t travel in a straight line, but at least we see the potential search area.

And by the way, some people believe that you have to wait 24 hours before a police agency will act on a missing person report.  Maybe that is the case in some places. But in my opinion that would not be wise.  But in our case we usually take action immediately if there is something to go on.  We don’t wait especially in a wilderness SAR.  If you look at the math you figured above you can clearly see why.

So my advice…if someone you know goes missing get on it right away, since success in locating them can diminish significantly as the clock ticks.

Now let’s apply this theoretical search area to flight 370 based on what we know. 

We make a couple of assumptions.  The aircraft can probably fly at 400 to 500 mph.  I base that on using my GPS on commercial aircraft.  It appears that after loss of contact the plane might have flown for about 6 to 7 hours.  So let’s conservatively use 400 mph for 6 hours.  And in this case once the plane was not heard from it is very possible it did travel in a straight line unlike a common lost subjects on the ground.

400 x 6 = 2400 mi. radius.  2400 x 2400 = 5,670,000 x 3.14 =  18,086,400 sq. mi.!!!!  Over eighteen million sq. mi.  That is the theoretical search area based on our rough calculations.  Or roughly 3 times the land area of Russia. 

Now let’s say for argument we can determine by investigation a direction and reduce the 18 mil. sq. miles to a wedge about ¼ of that circle area.  That is still an area of 4,521,600 sq. mi.  And to reach the search area can take hours just to get there.

But of course that is not all.  Then add the fact that the search area no matter what you determine it is, in this case is 3 dimensional and extends 1000s of feet below water were you can’t see.  Now rough up the search surface with weather and waves and low visibility at times, and throw tons of garbage into the area that might look like aircraft debris.

Now you can get a feel for the incredible if not impossible task before the 370 SAR effort.   You can also see why tracking in ground SAR can be critical because tracks can help eliminate a huge part of the search area down to a more manageable wedge were the tracks indicate the direction of travel.  And a good tracker can pick up other critical info on what the person is doing and their condition.  I once tracked two young boys. It became obvious by their running stride at times and where the track went that they were evading us…so we changed tactics and found them.

But we aren’t done.

Next we establish a statistical search area based on stats from past lost persons behavior and  were they were found or in this case aircraft searches.  For example you might find that the stats say for a child between 1 and 6,  75% were found downhill about 1.4  miles away from where they were last seen. If the terrain was hilly or flat or mountainous, those stats will change.

 

 

But in the Flt 370 case we are dealing with an unprecedented event  that probably doesn’t have many, or reliable statistics to rely on.

Then there is the subjective analysis to help determine the search area.  What is the terrain like, what factors might influence the persons (aircraft’s) direction and travel, speed, etc.  In our case of a missing teen maybe there is a canyon that might limit his straight line travel, speed and direction.  Maybe there is something else that might attract him. Maybe the weather slows him down.  In the Flt 370 case you see the investigators and media going through the endless possibilities.

Then there is deductive reasoning to determine the search area. 

An in depth analysis of all the circumstances surrounding the disappearance.   Here search planners independently can try to develop the most likely scenarios that are reasonable to the case and investigative facts.  Then those planners can meet and prioritize the most likely ones to plan on.  This along with the other things above will determine the best search plan.  At least until new information or clues surface, and they may radically change the plan and approach. In fact sometimes it puts the search back to square one.  You can see this scenario thing  happening in the 370 SAR and in the media as well.

Maybe in our lost teen scenario he had a fight with his parents, and tried to walk to town and a friend’s house, or was depressed, or was abducted.

And the investigation goes on 24/7 to try to find more details.

Making a search plan on a map we determine the most likely search area.  We then segment the search area into smaller segments that can reasonably be searched in one 12 hour operational period.  All the clues get put on the map and in the computer map.  The searchers return and estimate the probability of detection (POD).  In other words if the subject was in the segment what is the probability in % they would have detected them based on their search tactic and other conditions like the terrain and weather.

They also estimate a POD for the subject if they were responsive or unresponsive.  This all gets put into a computer program called CASIE.  Computer Aided Search Information Exchange developer by a PhD math professor interested in SAR.  This program will help us determine which segments to search next based on past search efforts.  It is available free on the Internet.

In this program everything outside the search area is referred to as the “Rest Of The World”  (ROW).  Each time you search a search segment the probability the person (or aircraft) is in that segment goes down and the possibility they are in the ROW goes up.

That is the basics of what is likely happening in some form in the Flt. 370 SAR. 

I have also had the opportunity to search from an aircraft, usually a AZ Dept. of Public Safety (Highway Patrol) or military Blackhawk helicopter looking for people, vehicles and downed aircraft.

It is very easy to miss something even in good conditions, and becomes very mentally fatiguing.

The 777 is a big aircraft…but the world and the search area and conditions within it are much much bigger.  And in addition the information is very limited and may be outright wrong or unreliable.

Now when the media says “ Why can’t they find this big airplane.”  Now you have an insight as to why not and the disturbing possibility all SAR personnel must face…they may never find it.

Of course I hope they do, mainly for the families.  So as I have experienced too many times all you can hope for is closure for the friends and loved ones. …but also for the incredible information that can be learned and applied to future SAR missions big or small around the world.

One thing I am pretty confident of from my training.  Flt. 370 will be a part of most serious SAR management trainings from now on.

 

            Can you spot the aircraft crash site in this picture????